The Aberdeen-based consultancy’s latest EPC value projections for floating platform structures (FPS) are a 73% reduction on its pre-COVID outlook and assuming a base oil price of $37/bbl in 2020.
“While the impact of the pandemic has hit FPS EPC contract awards significantly this year, the industry is in a much better place than the downturn of 2016 based on order intake so far, as well as the healthy backlogs of FPS contractors stemming from 2017-2019 activity,” said Westwood’s senior analyst, offshore, Mark Adeosun.
Two FPSO contract awards in Q1-2020
The first quarter of this year saw two EPC contract awards – the Sangomar floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit, built by Modec on behalf of Woodside’s project off Senegal and the Anna Nery FPSO, deployed offhshore Brazil – accounting for about $2 billion of EPC value.
Other key contracts are still pending, and hoped to be awarded later this year, notably Equinor’s Bacalhau unit and Petrobras’ Mero 3 which would account for over $3 billion in construction spend.
Over the 2020-24 period, EPC contract awards are estimated to recover towards $56 billion – including 40 FPSOs, 9 FPSS and 7 FLNG systems. The outlook for the latter, however, looks “increasingly difficult,” he cautioned, “as low spot prices and looming overcapacity threatens the attractiveness of potential future investments.”
Brazil, Guyana seen to “dominate investment”
“Latin America will account for nearly 42% of probable FPS contract awards over the next five years – totalling an estimated $24 billion,” Adeosun said. Brazil is likely to dominate investment, he explained, as international oil companies ramp up activity and Petrobras commits to the development of its pre-salt discoveries,
Outside Brazil, Guyana will contribute two additional orders to the forecast in addition to the Liza Unity and the Prosperity FPSO that are currently being built in Singapore (Topsides) and China (Hull).