Renewable and nuclear energy are forecast to grow by 7% to reach a 45% share in North America’s energy mix by 2025. These EIA projections fall short of the 50% clean energy goal that the governments of Canada, Mexico and the US set in their latest trilateral agreement alongside targets to expand interconnectors by 5 GW.
Electricity generation in the United States currently represents more than 80% of total generation in North America; and the EIA pointed out that its states its projections are based on the assumption that the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is upheld and takes effect
Implementation of the CPP is meant to begin in 2022 and result in a large increase in renewable generation between 2015 and 2025, according to the EIA's AEO2016 Reference case. In contrast, coal power in the US is forecast to fall 13% between 2015 and 2025 in the AEO Reference case, while natural gas-fired generation increases by 4%.
Trilateral clean energy partnership
Nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency were highlighted as “eligible sources of clean energy,” but while set a 50% goal for these power sources they fell short of specifying a baseline for assessing energy efficiency. Scaling up clean energy will be promoted through “aggressive domestic initiatives and policies,” including Mexico’s Energy Transition Law and new Clean Energy Certificates, the US Clean Power Plan and five-year extension of production and investment tax credits, and Canada’s actions to further scale up renewables, including hydro.
Canada already achieved 80% clean energy in 2015, mainly to its extensive use of hydropower – yet it aims to further increase installed wind and solar capacity. Mexico is undergoing an electricity market reform and EIA analysts expect nuclear and renewables will account for 29% of the country’s power mix by 2025.
As for cross-border transmission project, the three governments aim for 5,000 MW of new interconnector capacity through six lines that are currently proposed or in permitting review, such as the Great Northern Transmission Line, the New England Clean Power Link, and the Nogales Interconnection.
Lack of energy efficiency targets
The EIA sees substantial increases in demand-side energy efficiency, which it included in its projection for overall electricity demand without explicitly accounting these contributions. Analysts cautioned that the adoption of energy efficiency measures is influenced by fuel prices, technology costs, and policies.
Incremental efficiency is forecast reduces 2030 electricity demand by about 67 billion kilowatthours (kWh) to 76 billion kWh, or about 1.5% to 1.7% of total electricity demand, compared with a scenario without the Clean Power Plan.