When launching its 2016 Future Energy Scenarios, National Grid asked shareholders about the impact of the Brexit vote. “The general view was that Great Britain would end up in a greener and more prosperous world in 2036 than we are in today,” it resuméd now, “but there would be a decade of either the environment or the economy suffering.”
Several respondents believe the current period of high political uncertainty would lead to a reduction in investments across the energy sector.
A “lack of money” – not least due to the weakening pound - is seen to have a negative impact on all sorts of projects including infrastructural ones; R&D spending is also likely to suffer which will hamper technological innovations.
Silver lining emerges post-2030
By 2036, the both the UK economy and environmental consciousness are expected to be growing. No least, due to rising urgencies of environmental issues and by that time, society could afford to pay for them.
“But a decade would have been wasted in one way or another,” the survey concludes.
Differences were voices on which need to come first – economic expansion or environmental consciousness. As one delegate put it: “Uncertainty…less economic growth….less money available…less interest in renewables”. In Future Energy Scenario (FES) terms, the world would move through a No Progression phase in the first 5 years. After 10 years, it would be in a Consumer Power transition ultimately leading to a Gone Green world before 2036.
The contrasting view is that an environmentally conscious society would be the driving force; while it would be the economy which would recover less quick. This would equate to a FES journey of No Progression followed by Slow Progression and then Gone Green world.
National Grid announced it would soon announce further analysis on ‘the next Trail on Brexit’.