Even though natural gas is less carbon-intensive than coal, the overall rise in gas-burn in the power sector – amid competitive fuel economics – has made related pollution levels surpass those of coal. The EIA expects emissions from gas will be 10% greater than those from coal over the course of 2016.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), analyst at the EIA anticipate that gas generation is set to increase further – despite the recent rebound in gas prices at Henry Hub.
For 2016, EIA expects natural gas to fuel 34% of electricity generation compared with 30% for coal. In 2015, natural gas was used to generate slightly less than 33% of electricity, and coal was used to generate slightly more than 33% of electricity.
Plenty of gas is in storage, with working inventories pegged at 3,288 Bcf on July 29 – a 13% increase week-on-week. EIA projects that natural gas inventories will be 4,042 Bcf at the end of October 2016, which would be the highest end-of-October level on record.
Different CO2-intensity rates
Comparing fossil fuels, analyst point out that gas-burn for power generation results in about 52 million metric tons of CO2 for every quadrillion British thermal units (MMmtCO2/quad Btu), while coal's carbon intensity is about 95 MMmtCO2/quad Btu, or about 82% higher than gas's carbon intensity. Yet, because coal has a higher carbon intensity, even in a year when coal- and gas-burn were nearly equal, such as 2005, energy-related CO2 emissions from coal were about 84% higher than those from natural gas.
In 2015, natural gas consumption was 81% higher than coal consumption, and their emissions were nearly equal. Both fuels were associated with about 1.5 billion metric tons of energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States.
Rise in non-fossil fuels
Renewables and nuclear energy help the US to curb its carbon footprint.
Although use of natural gas and petroleum have increased in recent years, the decline in coal consumption and increase in nonfossil fuel consumption have lowered U.S. total carbon intensity from 60 MMmtCO2/quad Btu in 2005 to 54 MMmtCO2/quad Btu last year, according to EIA findings.