In the Reference Case of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), total U.S. energy consumption increases at an average annual rate of 0.3% between 2019 and 2050, and GDP grows at an annual rate of 1.9%, which indicates a 1.5% average annual decline in energy intensity through 2050
Similarly, in the Low Economic Growth case, energy intensity declines 1.4% annually.
Energy efficiency measures allow industry and household customers to use petroleum, natural gas and electricity more effectively. Strikingly, the domestic energy use associated with each dollar of U.S. economic growth will by 2050 be less than half of what it was in 2005.
Industry’s energy use is seen grow at an annual rate of 0.8 percent through 2050. Energy intensity, measured as energy consumption per dollar of output, is seen fall by 0.4 percent per year as the EIA expects less energy-intensive manufacturing industries to grow faster than others.
In the transportation sector, energy consumption is see fall by an average of 0.2% annually between 2019 and 2050. In the view of the U.S. Government, there is no need for more stringent fuel efficiency regulations for new light-duty vehicles after 2025 nor for new heavy-duty vehicles after 2027.
“Ultimately, vehicle travel demand outpaces fuel economy improvements,” EIA analysts commented, suggesting that on-road transportation sector energy consumption will increase starting in 2041. More energy-efficient technologies are adopted, however, for rail, bus, and air travel.
Commercial energy use is seen grow at a 3 percent rate, while residential energy use will likely stay flat through 2050. Analysts pointed out that “improvements and growth in distributed electricity generation, including on-site solar, partially offset the effects of growth in the U.S. population, households, and commercial floorspace.”