An EU decision to step up 2030 climate ambitions expected this summer, and the German environment minister Svenja Schulze conceded today that additional efforts are needed.
Emission reduction by the end of the decade are forecast to stand at about 51 percent compared to 1990 levels, instead of 55 percent, the target set in the government's Climate Action Programme. Though the power sector largely complies with government plans, progress in transport and heating is seen to be “especially off track.”
Carbon levy and coal phase-out not enough
Levying a national carbon price on transport and heating or the mass roll-out of electric cars, as well as the parallel coal phase-out are supposed to reduce Germany's emissions to 543 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030, from 858 million tons in 2018. However, the Öko-Institut found emissions reduction will fall short by about 70 million tonnes.
Transport minister Andreas Scheuer, had presented a list of nearly 50 measures supposed to slash emissions in the sector. But the analyses found these steps are “far insufficient,” because they will likely bring emissions down to about 125 million tonnes in 2030, rather than to 95 million as required.
According to the environment ministry (BMU) study, heating emissions in 2030 will be 17 million tonnes higher than planned and transport emissions even 33 million tonnes higher, with the CO2 output of cars, lorries, airplanes and other vehicles falling less than half as much as would be needed.
EU aims to further tighten emission target
Deficiencies of Germany could be further aggravated by a possible decision of the European Commission to tighten the bloc's Europe-wide 2030 emissions target. The commission under Ursula von der Leyen considers raising the target from 40 to up to 55 percent reduction in the context of the new EU Climate Law.
Pressure is mounting on Germany as it will hold the European Council Presidency in the second half of the year and thus host a highly-anticipated EU-China summit in September whereby the two key economic actors will coordinate their climate policies ahead of the UN climate conference COP26 in Glasgow.