When factoring the in burgeoning bus, truck and van markets, vehicles account for over 900 MW of the 1.1 GW total, according to the latest Fuel Cell Industry Review. The remainder consists of stationary systems – of which US and Korean power generation units make up the bulk – and tens of thousands of Japanese CHP units installed in apartments.
Ready for commercialization
“If the 2010s can be seen as the breakout decade for the battery, the 2020s will see the ascendancy of the fuel cell,” said David Hart, director for fuel cells & hydrogen at E4tech.
From a technical perspective fuels are proven, so there’s a great sense that the industry is on the cusp of something great. Anticipating rapid demand growth for fuel cells, E4tech analysts stressed that trend is coming just in time: “Climate change targets are looking more urgent and challenging than ever, and we need a full range of technologies to meet them,” he commented.
At the same time, the broader hydrogen sector is starting to expand as recognition grows that some applications, like heat, will be difficult to fully electrify. This supports and complements fuel cell growth.
China, Korea drive demand
Asia remains the largest market for fuel cells, accounting for 680 MW, driven strongly by Hyundai NEXO sales into Korea and by Korean stationary power. Fuel cell vehicles deployed in Asia in 2019, including trucks and buses in China, constitute 50% of the total shipped fuel cell capacity worldwide.
The NEXO also accounts for some growth in European capacity, which increased from 41 MW to currently over 70 MW. However, the biggest market outside of Asia is North America, which saw shipped capacity of 384 MW – down slightly from 425 MW in 2018, but expected to rebound in 2021.
“To succeed, the fuel cell industry will need to see the supply chain mature quickly enough to deliver on expectations, and to allay any remaining safety concerns. But the opportunity is huge, big players are investing very seriously in hydrogen, putting the pieces into place to make it work,” Hart noted. Once that happens, fuel cells will rank as an established technology, feeding not just into the success of today’s products and systems, but featuring in the designs of tomorrow’s innovators and entrepreneurs.