In China – first hit by the coronavirus outbreak – industrial production and transport volumes have decreased sharply since the beginning of the year, followed by a sharp drop in greenhouse gas emissions. In Germany and indeed most of Europe, similar effects are expected to set in soon, after most governments enacted emergency measures that range from school closures and travel curbs to curfews.
Though these contingency measures will have a one-off effect on emissions, they do not bring about structural changes. Dirk Messner, head of the German environment agency, warned “the corona effect could even obscure the need for change."
Fuel-switch helps reach climate goals
Comparatively cheap gas and rising prices for carbon credits in the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) are prompting utilities to dispatch gas-fired plants rather than more polluting coal-fired units.
With respect to the government's initial target of reaching a 40 percent, or 500 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents reduction by 2020, environment minister Swenja Schulze said Germany could come much closer to it than initially expected.
Add to this the “corona effect”, means reaching or even exceeding the 40 percent target would be possible "in principle." Michael Strogies, head of emissions reporting at the environment ministry expects Germany could come much closer to the target than predicted; "But I wouldn't say we exceed 40 percent just yet."
Tackling transport sector emission
All eyes are now on the transport sector which still lags far behind. The success in tackling energy-related emission was largely the result of result of political decisions, such as the expansion of renewable power sources in recent years or the gradual closure of coal plants since 2016.
Things will not be that easy for transport, where 2019 emissions ended up being 1 million tonnes higher than in 1990. Engine efficiency gains are routinely outweighed by sales of heavier and more vehicles and more kilometres travelled by car, and that the share of transport in total emissions is growing constantly.
Policy makers are aiming for a “turnaround in traffic” by freeing up more funding for sustainable transport alternatives to cars, particularly in inner cities.