On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) projects that worldwide electricity generation will grow by 1.8% per year to reach nearly 45 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) by 2050, almost 20 trillion kWh more than the 2018 level. Growth in electricity demand in non-OECD regions far is seen outpace those in OECD regions.
Renewables competitive with fossil generation
New-build wind and solar PV installations are becoming economically competitive with fossil technologies worldwide, EIA analysts pointed out. “But without policy incentives, growth in generation from renewable sources is limited in regions with slow demand growth,” they warned.
Europe’s electricity demand is projected to grow at about 1 percent per year through 2050; however, a regional CO2-cap will lead to lower fossil-fired generation and rising renewables generation to meet demand.
By 2050, the share of wind and solar generation in Europe is seen increase from 20 percent to almost 50 percent. Fossil-fired plants will fall from 37 percent to just 18 percent, with coal power units likely to account for only 5 percent.
Green energy takes hold in India
India has the most rapid electricity demand growth, around 4.6% per year, in the IEO2019 Reference case. Although India has developed target levels for solar and wind capacity, it does not have an aggressive emissions reduction policy in place, so EIA projects coal-fired generation growth in addition to growth in solar and wind generation.
Solar, wind, and coal combined will account for 90% of India's power gen mix in 2050. The contribution of wind and solar is seen rising from less than 10% in 2018, to more than 50% in 2050. In contrast, the share of coal power in India's electricity output falls from about 75% to less than 40% over the same period.