Growth in gas demand for export started to exceed growth in gas-burn for power generation in 2019, as the U.S. shale gas revolution continues to unfold. Deliveries of shale gas production via national U.S. pipelines to liquefaction and export facilities accounted for 12 percent of gas production.
Imports from Canada, meanwhile, declined over the past four years as domestic U.S. gas supplies from Appalachia into the Midwestern states have displaced some Canadian gas pipeline imports. U.S. pipeline exports to Canada have increased since 2018 when the NEXUS pipeline and Phase 2 of the Rover pipeline entered service. Overall, EIA projects the United States will remain a net natural gas importer from Canada through 2050.
Exports of U.S. pipeline gas to Mexico, meanwhile, keep growing amid expanded cross-border pipeline capacity which averaged 5.1 Bcf/d from January through October 2019. The increase in export was primarily caused by the newly commissioned Sur de Texas–Tuxpan pipeline the southern Mexican state of Veracruz.
Several new pipelines in Mexico that were scheduled to come online in 2019 were delayed are expected to enter service in 2020: Pipelines in Central and Southwest Mexico (1.2 Bcf/d at La Laguna–Aguascalientes and 0.9 Bcf/d at Villa de Reyes–Aguascalientes–Guadalajara); and pipelines in Western Mexico (0.5 Bcf/d at Samalayuca–Sásabe).
U.S. LNG exports averaged 5 Bcf/d over the past year, 2 Bcf/d more than previously, due to several new facilities that placed their first trains in service. In 2020, several new liquefaction units (referred to as trains) are scheduled to be placed in service: Trains 2 and 3 at Cameron LNG in Louisiana, Train 3 at Freeport LNG in Texas, and Trains 5–10, six Moveable Modular Liquefaction System (MMLS) units, at Elba Island in Georgia.
In 2021, the third train at the Corpus Christi facility in Texas is scheduled to come online, bringing the total U.S. liquefaction capacity to 10.2 Bcf/d at baseload, and 10.8 Bcf/d at peak capacity. Analyst at the EIA expects LNG exports to continue to grow and average 6.5 Bcf/d in 2020 and 7.7 Bcf/d in 2021, as facilities gradually ramp up to full production.